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Business case6 min read

How to calculate the baseline cost of manual work

The formula a CFO will accept, the mistake that invalidates most business cases, and why observed times beat reported ones.

A senior professional reviewing an approval and reconciliation pack.

The short answer

Manual cost = (time per occurrence × fully-burdened hourly rate × volume) + (error rate × cost per error × volume). Use a fully-burdened rate of roughly 1.4–1.5× base salary over about 1,700 productive hours a year, and use observed times from shadowing and system logs rather than self-reported estimates.

Most automation business cases fail review for the same two reasons: the hourly rate is too low and the time estimate came from asking someone. Both are fixable in a fortnight, and fixing them is usually what turns an operations project into an approved one.

The formula

Baseline cost of a manual process
(time per occurrence × fully-burdened hourly rate × monthly volume) + (error rate × cost per error × monthly volume)

Getting the rate right

A fully-burdened rate includes employer taxes, benefits, equipment, software, workspace and management overhead — typically 1.4 to 1.5 times base salary. Spread over roughly 1,700 genuinely productive hours a year rather than 2,080 nominal ones.

A $60,000 salary becomes over $90,000 burdened, which is about $53 an hour — not the $29 an hour that dividing by 2,080 suggests. That difference alone routinely doubles a business case.

Getting the time right

Self-reported times are unreliable in both directions. People underestimate work they do constantly because it feels quick, and overestimate work they dislike. Neither error is random enough to cancel out.

  • Shadow the work. One hour per role, watching the actual screens, is worth more than a week of interviews.
  • Pull the logs. Ticket systems, CRMs, call platforms and email all carry timestamps that settle arguments.
  • Count the interruptions and the re-work. The task takes eleven minutes; the day says otherwise, and the gap is the switching cost.
  • Measure the exception path separately. It is a fraction of volume and a large fraction of cost.

The second half of the formula

Error cost is where the real numbers usually are, and where most business cases stop early. A mis-keyed invoice is not a two-minute fix; it is a supplier call, an approval cycle and sometimes a duplicate payment. An expired licence found at an inspection is not admin — it is a stood-down vehicle.

What to do with the number

Two things. First, it sets the value ceiling: no automation should be priced or scoped above the cost it removes. Second, it is the before in your before-and-after, and it has to be measured before you build — a baseline reconstructed afterwards convinces nobody, least of all a finance team.

One page per process
Keep it to a single page: volume, observed time, burdened rate, error rate, error cost, total monthly cost, and the source of every input. If a number cannot be sourced, mark it as an assumption and show what happens if it is wrong by half.

Sources and further reading

  1. 01JumpCloud — the financial baseline before pitching automation
  2. 02OpenNash — observed versus reported process times
A small team mapping an operating process in a working session.

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